Zotsatira za Nkhondo Yamalonda ya Tariff pakati pa USA ndi China pa Malonda a Tinplate Padziko Lonse

▶ Kuyambira mu 2018 ndipo ikukulirakulira pofika pa Epulo 26, 2025, Nkhondo Yamalonda ya Misonkho pakati pa USA ndi China yakhala ndi zotsatirapo zazikulu pa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi, makamaka mumakampani opanga ma tinplate.

▶ Monga pepala lachitsulo lopakidwa ndi tini lomwe limagwiritsidwa ntchito makamaka popanga zitini, Tinplate yagwidwa ndi milandu ya misonkho ndi njira zobwezera.

▶ Pano tikulankhula za momwe malonda a tinplate padziko lonse lapansi angakhudzire, ndipo tikambirana za Southeast Asia, kutengera zomwe zachitika posachedwapa pazachuma komanso deta yamalonda.

Mbiri ya Nkhondo Yamalonda

Nkhondo yamalonda inayamba ndi US kuyika misonkho pa katundu waku China, kukamba za machitidwe osalungama amalonda ndi kuba katundu wanzeru.

Pofika mu 2025, boma la Purezidenti Donald Trump linakweza mitengo ya zinthu, kufika pa 145% ya mitengo ya zinthu zaku China.

China idabwezera ndi misonkho pa katundu wochokera ku USA, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti malonda pakati pawo achepe kwambiri, ndipo izi zimapangitsa kuti 3% ya malonda apadziko lonse lapansi aku US - China ikukulitsa nkhondo yamalonda;

Kukwera kumeneku kwasokoneza unyolo wopereka zinthu padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zakhudza mafakitale monga tinplate.

Mitengo ya USA pa Tinplate yaku China

Pogwira ntchito yokonza zinthu, choncho tikuyang'ana kwambiri pa tinplate, Dipatimenti Yamalonda ya ku US idakhazikitsa msonkho woyambirira woletsa kutaya zinthu zopangidwa ndi tin kuchokera ku China, ndipo chiwongola dzanja chapamwamba kwambiri chinali 122.5% pa zinthu zomwe zimalowa kunja, kuphatikizapo kuchokera kwa opanga akuluakulu a Baoshan Iron and Steel US kuti akhazikitse msonkho pa tin mill steel kuchokera ku Canada, China, Germany.

Izi zinayamba kugwira ntchito kuyambira mu Ogasiti 2023, ndipo mwina zipitirira mpaka mu 2025. Tikukhulupirira kuti mbale zachitsulo zaku China zayamba kuchepa mpikisano pamsika waku US, zomwe zapangitsa ogula kufunafuna njira zina ndikusokoneza kayendetsedwe ka malonda achikhalidwe.

Kuyankha Kobwezera kwa China

Yankho la China linaphatikizapo kukweza mitengo ya katundu wa ku America, zomwe zinafika pa 125% pofika mu Epulo 2025, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti njira zolipirira zinthu zina zitha kutha.

China yakweza msonkho wa 125% pa katundu wa ku America chifukwa cha kukwera kwa malonda pakati pa US ndi China.

Kubwezera kumeneku kwawonjezera kupsinjika kwa malonda pakati pawo, kwachepetsa kutumiza kwa US ku China ndipo kudzakhudza momwe malonda apadziko lonse lapansi amagwirira ntchito, ndipo China ndi United States zonse ziyenera kusintha kuti zigwirizane ndi mitengo yokwera ndikufunafuna ogwirizana atsopano ochokera m'madera ndi mayiko ena.

Zotsatira za Malonda a Tinplate Padziko Lonse

Nkhondo yamalonda yapangitsa kuti kusintha kwa kayendedwe ka malonda a tinplate kusinthe.

Popeza kutumiza kunja kwa China ku US kukulephereka, madera ena, kuphatikizapo Southeast Asia, awona mwayi wolowa m'malo mwake.

Nkhondo yamalonda yalimbikitsanso opanga padziko lonse lapansi kusinthasintha maunyolo ogulitsa: Mayiko monga Vietnam ndi Malaysia adzakopa ndalama mu kupanga, komanso tikuyang'ana kwambiri pakupanga mbale zachitsulo.

Chifukwa chiyani? pamene mitengo ikukwera, kutumiza kapena kusamutsa kwa mizinda yayikulu kudzakonza malo ake opangira zinthu kupita kumalo atsopano, ndipo kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia kudzakhala chisankho chabwino, komwe ndalama zogwirira ntchito zimakhala zochepa, magalimoto osavuta kuyenda, komanso ndalama zogulira zimakhala zochepa.

Kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia: Mwayi ndi Mavuto

Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia kumaonedwa kuti ndi dera lofunika kwambiri pa malonda a tinplate.

Mayiko monga Vietnam, Malaysia, ndi Thailand apindula ndi nkhondo yamalonda.

Pamene opanga akusintha ndikupeza malo atsopano opangira mafakitale kuti apewe misonkho ya US pa katundu waku China.

Mwachitsanzo, Vietnam yawona kuwonjezeka kwa kupanga zinthu, ndi makampani aukadaulo omwe akusamukira kumeneko, zomwe zikhudza mafakitale okhudzana ndi zitini.

Kupanga zinthu ku Vietnam kuli mu nkhondo yamalonda pakati pa US ndi China. Malaysia yawonanso kukula kwa kutumiza kunja kwa semiconductor, zomwe zingathandize mwanjira ina kufunikira kwa mapaketi a tinplate kuti agulitsidwe nkhondo yamalonda pakati pa China ndi United States.
Komabe, mavuto amabwerabe.

US yakhazikitsa misonkho pa zinthu zosiyanasiyana za ku Southeast Asia, monga ma solar panels, ndi mitengo yofika pa 3,521% pa zinthu zochokera ku Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, ndi Vietnam US Yakhazikitsa Misonkho Mpaka 3,521% pa zinthu zochokera ku Southeast Asia za Solar Imports. Ponena za solar imports, izi zikusonyeza kuti pali njira yodzitetezera yomwe ingapitirire ku tinplate ngati katundu wotumizidwa ku US awonjezeka. Kumbali ina, Southeast Asia ikukumana ndi chiopsezo chodzaza ndi katundu waku China, pamene China ikufuna kuchepetsa kutayika kwa msika waku US polimbitsa ubale wa madera, zomwe ziwonjezera mpikisano wa opanga ma tinplate am'deralo. Misonkho ya Trump idzapangitsa kuti Southeast Asia ikhale pafupi ndi China movutikira.

Zotsatira Zachuma ndi Kusintha kwa Malonda

Nkhondo yamalonda yabweretsa zotsatira zosokoneza malonda, pomwe mayiko akumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia akupindula ndi kuwonjezeka kwa kutumiza kunja ku US ndi China kuti akwaniritse mipata yomwe yatsala chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa malonda a mayiko awiriwa.

Vietnam ndiye dziko lomwe lapindula kwambiri, ndi kuwonjezeka kwa 15% kwa malonda otumizidwa ku US mu 2024, chifukwa cha kusintha kwa kupanga Momwe Nkhondo Yamalonda ya US-China Inakhudzira Padziko Lonse. Malaysia ndi Thailand nawonso awona phindu, ndi kutumiza kunja kwa semiconductor ndi magalimoto kukwera.

Komabe, IMF inachenjeza za kuchepa kwa 0.5% kwa GDP m'misika yatsopano chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwa malonda, zomwe zikuwonetsa kufooka kwa nkhondo yamalonda ya Southeast Asia - US - China; zomwe zimakhudza Southeast Asia.

Zotsatira Zatsatanetsatane pa Makampani a Tinplate

Deta yeniyeni yokhudza malonda a tinplate ku Southeast Asia ndi yochepa, zomwe zikuchitika zikusonyeza kuti kupanga ndi malonda akuwonjezeka.

Nkhondo yamalonda pakati pa China ndi USA ikhoza kusamutsa kupanga ma tinplate ku Southeast Asia, zomwe zingapangitse kuti ndalama zogulira zichepe komanso kuyandikira misika ina zichepe.

Mwachitsanzo, makampani opanga ma solar panel aku China omwe ali ndi mafakitale m'derali akhoza kuwonjezera njira zofanana ndi izi kuti agwiritse ntchito ma tinplate. US yawonjezera mitengo yowonjezereka ku Southeast Asia, chifukwa ma solar panel akupeza misonkho yoletsa kutaya zinthu zomwe zimafika pa 3,521%. Komabe, opanga akumaloko angapikisane ndi makampani ochokera ku China komanso a US, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale malo ovuta.

 

Mayankho a Zigawo ndi Chiyembekezo cha Mtsogolo

Mayiko akumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia akuyankha mwa kulimbitsa mgwirizano wapakati pa madera, monga momwe ASEAN ikuwonera poyesa kukonza mapangano amalonda. US - China idzayankha pankhondo yamalonda ndipo izi zidzakhudza Southeast Asia.

Maulendo a Purezidenti wa China ku Vietnam, Malaysia, ndi Cambodia mu Epulo 2025 cholinga chake chinali kulimbitsa ubale wa chigawochi, zomwe mwina zinawonjezera malonda a tinplate. Ulendo wa Xi Wawonetsa Vuto la Kumwera cha Kum'mawa kwa Asia pa Nkhondo Yamalonda ya US-China. Komabe, tsogolo la chigawochi limadalira kuyendetsa misonkho ya US ndikusunga bata lazachuma pakati pa kusatsimikizika kwapadziko lonse lapansi.

Dziko	Mwayi	Mavuto
Vietnam	Kuwonjezeka kwa kupanga zinthu, kukula kwa kutumiza kunja	Misonkho yomwe ingakhalepo ku US, mpikisano
Malaysia	Kukwera kwa kutumiza kunja kwa semiconductor, kusiyanasiyana	Misonkho ya US, katundu waku China wasefukira
Thailand	Kusintha kwa kupanga, malonda a m'madera	Chiwopsezo cha misonkho ya US, kupsinjika kwachuma
Cambodia	Malo opangira zinthu atsopano	Mitengo yokwera ya US (monga, mphamvu ya dzuwa, 3,521%)